. As a swing trader you must be very clear to identify which
trend is your friend.
Swing traders must be attuned to the minor trend as
they look to capitalize on short-term moves that may last from a few
days to at most a few weeks. However, if your exclusive focus is just on
the near-term picture, then you will often get hit with nasty surprises.
for the
following days: 4, 9, 20, 30, 50, 150 and 200. They are simple (not
exponential) moving averages.
Different technicians will swear by the 40-day moving
average or will extol the virtues of combining the eight-day moving
average with the 32-day or the power of the 65-day moving average.
However, I don't think any single moving average is "the right
one." Once you have found a combination that works for you, then
stick by it so you get a feel for the signals that those particular
averages generate. There is no one moving average or combination with a
special power; the key point is to represent the moving averages in
various, multiple time frames. Here's why I have decided to focus on
each of these particular time periods:
The four- and nine-day moving averages represent
the very short-term (or minor) trend.
The 20-, 30- and 50-day moving averages for me
represent different "slices" of the intermediate-term
trend.
The 150- and 200-day moving averages are
definers of the long-term market trend.
In any good charting package, you should be able to
place all of these moving averages on the same chart. While at
first this practice may seem like information overload, you will quickly
adjust to these types of charts (and your persistence will be rewarded
with more accurate trading signals).
Combining moving averages from multiple time frames
allows you to determine when the trends from all three periods are in
your favor.
. Moving averages define the trend
and provide support and resistance. By placing and examining multiple
moving averages on the same chart, we increase the probability of
trading in harmony with all three trends: primary (or long term),
intermediate and short term.
As long as price remains above the key moving
averages and the moving averages are trading above one another in what
I've labeled "bullish alignment," traders should hold their
long positions. If price is below the key moving average and the
averages are in "bearish alignment," then that particular
stock should be held short.
swing traders can use as few
as two moving averages or as many as three or more. These moving
averages should be combined with other technical analysis tools such as
candlesticks and indicators such as MACD
A moving average crossover system of great importance
to swing traders was made popular by R.C. Allen. This system involves
the 4, 9, and 18-day moving averages. Allen created his system well
before Bollinger bands were created, and I have modified his concept
slightly by
A moving average crossover system of great importance
to swing traders was made popular by R.C. Allen. This system involves
the 4, 9, and 18-day moving averages. Allen created his system well
before Bollinger bands were created, and I have modified his concept
slightly by substituting a 20-day moving average for the 18-day. This
change gives me the advantage of adding a Bollinger band to the chart
without creating visual clutter.
According to Allen's system, a cross of the 4-day
above the 18-day is an early signal that the trend has changed to
bullish. When the 9-day crosses above the 18-day, this change in trend
is confirmed and a buy signal is created. It's worth noting that at that
time, of course, all three moving averages will be in "bullish
alignment" with each other and all three will also likely be
sloping upward.
When the uptrend is in the process of reversing, an
early indication of trend change will take place when the 4-day moving
average crosses down through the 9-day. A swing trader might want to
nail down profits at this time even though a confirmed signal has not
yet been gi
A swing trader might want to
nail down profits at this time even though a confirmed signal has not
yet been given.
When the uptrend is in the process of reversing, an
early indication of trend change will take place when the 4-day moving
average crosses down through the 9-day. A swing trader might want to
nail down profits at this time even though a confirmed signal has not
yet been given. The confirmation does come when both moving averages
cross below the 18-day and all three averages are in "bearish
alignment."
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